New Delhi, May 24, 2025
India has observed a slight increase in Covid-19 cases across nine states over the past week, mirroring a trend seen in parts of southeast Asia. Despite this uptick, health experts assert that the current figures remain low, with no alarming trends or new variants of concern identified.
Active Cases on the Rise
Data from the Union Health Ministry indicates that the number of active Covid-19 cases in India has risen from 93 on May 12 to 257 on May 19. The states experiencing an increase in cases include Delhi, Gujarat, Haryana, Karnataka, Kerala, Maharashtra, Rajasthan, Sikkim, and Tamil Nadu.
No Indication of Increased Severity
Health experts suggest that the modest rise in reported cases may not accurately reflect the true number of Covid-19 infections, as many individuals with respiratory symptoms are not seeking Covid-19 testing. However, they emphasize that there is no evidence to suggest that the virus has evolved to cause more severe illness. The absence of active cases reported in several states may be attributed to a lack of testing rather than a genuine absence of infections.
Southeast Asia Experiences Surge
The recent surge in Covid-19 cases in Hong Kong, Singapore, and Thailand has been largely attributed to various successors of the omicron variant, which spread globally in 2021-2022. Microbiologists monitoring the evolving variants of the virus assert that unless there is a dramatic evolutionary change in the virus, significant shifts in infection patterns or severity are unlikely.
Variant Analysis
Rajesh Karyakarte, Professor and Head of Microbiology at BJ Medical College, Pune, explains that the variant currently circulating in Hong Kong is NB.1.8.1, a combination of XDV and JN.1. Both XDV and JN.1 have evolved from omicron variants such as XBB or BA.2, which have previously circulated widely in India. Experts do not anticipate these derivatives to cause any major shift in hospitalization patterns, thanks to high rates of vaccination and natural infections that have bolstered immunity.
Genomic Surveillance Continues
As the severity of Covid-19 infections has waned and fewer people are seeking diagnoses, genomic surveillance has also declined. However, a nationwide network of laboratories continues to monitor samples from sewage lines, which could potentially provide an early warning about emerging outbreaks in specific areas.
Uneven Increase Across States
The increase in cases has not been uniform across states. Kerala has recorded the largest increase, with cases rising from 26 on May 12 to 95 on May 19. Maharashtra's count rose from 12 to 56, and Tamil Nadu's from 32 to 66 over the same period.
Factors Contributing to Higher Detection Rates
Arup Halder, Consultant Pulmonologist at CMRI Hospital, Calcutta, attributes the higher detection rates and infection counts to waning immunity, inconsistent vaccine booster uptake, and increased demand for testing.
Conclusion
While the rise in Covid-19 cases is being closely monitored, experts reassure that there is no immediate cause for concern. The current situation does not indicate a significant threat, and the focus remains on continued surveillance and vaccination efforts.
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